ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 20th January
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, January 20. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better (https://surveys.hotjar.com/58578fe2-a49e-4faf-9594-3a926a54cd03).
AMP names Blair Vernon as CEO as Alexis George prepares to retire
[9:50 am] Blair Vernon will succeed Alexis George as AMP’s Group CEO on 30 March 2026.
*Blair Vernon, AMP’s current CFO, brings over 30 years of experience in financial services across Australia and New Zealand, including previous leadership roles as CEO/MD of New Zealand Wealth Management and Acting CEO of AMP Australia.
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Vernon led AMP’s transformation and simplification program, including the divestment of AMP Capital assets, and has been Group CFO since July 2023.
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CEO contract: $1.4 million salary, short-term incentive up to 125% of salary, long-term incentive target of 100% of salary, six-month termination notice, 12-month post-employment restraint.
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Alexis George will retire from executive roles on 30 March 2026 but remain available for handover and support, with all incentives treated per existing contract terms.
Company page: AMP (AMP (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/amp))
Hub24 delivers record inflows in 2Q26
[9:45 am] Hub24 delivered a strong December quarter funds under administration update, with record inflows and still-solid growth rates.
*Platform FUA up 5% quarter-on-quarter and 29% year-on-year to $127.9bn
*Platform FUA growth driven by record net inflows of $5.6bn
*Record half-year net inflows of $10.7bn
*Total FUA up 26% year-on-year to $152.3bn
*Hub24 platform ranked first for quarterly and annual net inflows
*Commenced development of myhub leveraging Hub24 Group capabilities to address productivity challenges for advice practices
To add some perspective, Macquarie (28-Nov-25) was expecting 1H26 FUA of $128.2bn, with first-half inflows of $10.2bn.
Company page: Hub24 (HUB (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/hub))
Qoria delivers record Q2 revenue
[9:38 am] Qoria delivered record ARR growth in a typically slow quarter, surpassing US$100 million in ARR and building a robust K12 pipeline for FY26.
*Q2 exit ARR of $149 million after FX adjustments, up 19% year-on-year
*Cash receipts for 1H26 up 20% year-on-year $79.1 million
*Free cash flow up 46% to $8.9 million.
*Qustodio ARR is growing at an annualised rate of 34%, with the weighted K12 pipeline up 29% to $13.6 million and an unweighted pipeline of $39.5 million.
*FY26 guidance reaffirmed: $145 million in revenue, 20% ARR growth, 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and positive free cash flow.
Qoria joins a long list of tech stocks that have been smashed in recent months, it's down 48% from its 21-Oct-25 record high and trading at the lowest since July. Today's quarterly suggests the fundamentals and growth rates remain the same, though the market seems no longer willing to pay a premium valuation for most software names.
Company page: Qoria (QOR (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/qor))
Origin Energy extends Eraring operations to strengthen NSW power security
[9:32 am] Origin Energy will keep Eraring Power Station running until 2029 to support NSW electricity reliability while staying on track with emissions targets.
*Extend operation of all four Eraring Power Station units from 19-Aug-27 to 30-Apr-29, supporting NSW system security.
*No further major maintenance overhauls are planned before the plant’s retirement in April 2029.
*The extension is not expected to impact Origin’s 2030 emissions reduction targets or its net zero by 2050 ambition.
*The Eraring site will remain a key part of the National Electricity Market beyond 2029.
*The Eraring Battery, partially operational since late 2025, will reach full capacity in Q1 2027 with 700MW / 3,160MWh, providing about 4.5 hours of storage for NSW.
Company page: Origin Energy (ORG (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/org))
Bellevue Gold confirms Q2 production
[9:26 am] Bellevue Gold delivered Q2 production of 32koz with realised pricing offsetting slightly higher costs.
Gold sales of 31,905oz were marginally below consensus while AISC of A$2,989/oz came in slightly above A$2,914 consensus, but the company reiterated confidence in second half cost reductions and remains on track to meet FY26 production and cost guidance.
Company page: Bellevue Gold (BGL (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/bgl))
Northern Star lifts FY26 cost guidance
[9:25 am] Northern Star has bumped its FY26 AISC guidance to A$2,600-2,800/oz vs. prior A$2,300-2,700/oz.
*This represents an 8% increase at the midpoint
*AISC revision driven predominately by lower gold sales and higher royalties from elevated gold prices
*Sustaining capex guidance of A$750m remains unchanged
It was just three weeks ago that Northern Star downgraded its FY26 gold sales guidance to 1,600-1,700koz vs. prior 1,700-1,850koz (7% downgrade at the midpoint). The company said this downgrade reflected a number of isolated negative events in late December, including a primary crusher failure at KCGM, longer-than-expected recovery at Yandal and lower mined grades at Pogo.
On the day of the gold sales downgrade (2-Jan), Northern Star shares dipped 8.6% (down as much as 11.4% intraday).
Company page: Northern Star (NST (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/nst))
Yancoal Q4 2025 quarterly report
[9:20 am] Yancoal delivered a record performance in the December quarter and bumped its cash position to $2.13 billion (vs. market cap of $7.2bn). Here are some of the key numbers from the quarterly report:
*Q4 attributable saleable coal production up 7% year-on-year to 10.4Mt
*2025 attributable saleable coal production up 5% to 38.6Mt vs. guidance of 35-39Mt
*2025 operational guidance remains unchanged at $89-97 a tonne and $750-900m capex (to report towards the bottom end of the range)
*Q4 average realised price up 6% quarter-on-quarter but down 16% year-on-year to A$148 a tonne
*Cash balance up 18.3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.13 billion
Management commentary: "Our strengthening financial position enables us to consider dividends and contemplate value adding growth opportunities. We look forward to providing further capital management commentary when we release our 2025 Financial Results."
Company page: Yancoal (YAL (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/yal))
A2 dipped on China data
[9:07 am] A2 Milk abruptly sold off around 1:00 pm AEST on Monday, which was exactly when the Chinese economic data was released. The stock finished the session down 11.7% ($8.30) to the lowest since 19 August 2025.
A2 Milk daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
The selloff appears somewhat of an overreaction, as A2 upgraded its FY26 guidance just two months ago on 20 November 2025.
*FY26 revenue growth of 10-13% vs. prior high single digits
*NPAT to be slightly up on FY25 vs. prior 'similar' guidance
*Intention to declare a special NZ$300m dividend, subject to regulatory approvals being received for two existing Pokeno China label registrations
Analysts were broadly positive on the guidance upgrade, including:
*Macquarie retained Outperform, raised target from $8.70 to $9.50, citing an improved revenue outlook driven by broad-based category strength, strong execution across geographies and confidence in Pokeno tracking to plan, with the special dividend still linked to regulatory milestones.
*UBS retained Neutral, raised target from $10.55 to $11.10, pointing to strong early FY26 trading across all product lines, continued momentum in English Label brands and lower-than-expected Pokeno manufacturing losses, with valuation now reflecting medium-term earnings potential.
China GDP and economic data recap
[8:59 am] Big economic data dump from China on Monday, which drove a downward intraday move for iron ore miners (FMG (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/fmg) -1.8%) and sharp selloff for A2 Milk (-11.7%).
Here are some of the key takeaways from the GDP print:
*GDP growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year in the December quarter, the weakest since the pandemic
*2025 full year real growth of 5% masked nominal growth of just 4%, pointing to a third year of deflation
*Industrial output rose a strong 5.9%, supported by resilient exports, while retail sales lagged at 3.7% as households remained constrained by housing stress, jobs uncertainty and falling prices
*Fixed asset investment excluding rural households fell 3.8%, the first annual contraction in decades, reflecting tighter controls on local government debt and efforts to curb excess capacity
*Property remains the key drag, with investment down 17.2%, faster price declines and ongoing double digit falls in new housing starts despite some easing in the pace of contraction.
*Demographic pressures intensified, with the lowest birth rate since 1949 and a shrinking working age population adding to long term fiscal and growth challenges
China crosses a new line in Taiwan airspace
[8:55 am] Beijing’s first confirmed military drone incursion into Taiwanese airspace signals a calibrated escalation in pressure on Taipei.
*A Chinese reconnaissance drone entered Taiwanese airspace over Pratas Island for about four minutes, operating above the reach of air defence systems before departing after radio warnings.
*This marks the first acknowledged military drone penetration, raising the baseline of China’s grey zone tactics compared with earlier civilian drone incidents.
*The move comes amid heightened military activity, including recent PLA live fire drills following an $11 billion US arms package for Taiwan.
*China framed the flight as lawful training, reinforcing its strategy of normalising provocative actions while avoiding direct confrontation.
Source: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-19/china-sends-military-drone-into-taiwan-airspace-for-first-time?sref=uzSZWiRv)
Greenland standoff hardens US–Europe fault lines
[8:51 am] Washington is escalating its Greenland push with tariffs and security rhetoric, deepening strains with Europe and raising the risk of economic and political retaliation.
*The US is moving beyond rhetoric, imposing a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries from February 1, rising to 25% in June, signalling a willingness to use trade pressure to force concessions.
*Bessent framed Europe as strategically weak, dismissing EU threats to unwind a tariff deal and arguing the US is deliberately leveraging emergency powers and security dominance.
*Europe’s response is sharpening, with French President Macron urging activation of the EU’s anti coercion instrument, marking a potential shift from diplomacy to formal retaliation.
*The rationale from Washington centres on Arctic competition, missile defence ambitions and Europe’s past energy dependence on Russia, tying Greenland to broader US security and industrial strategy.
Source: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-18/bessent-says-weak-europe-means-trump-must-take-greenland-for-us?sref=uzSZWiRv)
US 10-year yields hit four month high
[8:49 am] US 10-year yield up 5 bps overnight to 4.22%, trading at the highest level since 3-Sep-25 and now above the 200-day moving average for the first time since last August.
US 10-year yield daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Trump’s trade threats over Greenland raise the risk Europe rebalances away from US assets, with implications for the dollar, euro and global markets.
*Europe is the US’s largest external financier, holding about $8 trillion in US bonds and equities, almost double the rest of the world combined, making any shift in allocations market moving.
*Deutsche Bank argues geopolitical strain is undermining Europe’s willingness to keep underwriting US deficits, increasing the risk of dollar rebalancing.
*The euro’s initial dip looks fragile, with tariffs potentially accelerating European political cohesion and limiting sustained downside for the currency.
*Early market signals were mixed, with the euro rebounding 0.2 percent on the day while US and European equity futures fell, pointing to rising cross asset uncertainty.
A quiet overnight session
[8:45 am] Edit: I did not realise the US market was closed.
Good morning!
[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are down 32pts (-0.36%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap (https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/morning-wrap-asx-200-to-fall-s-and-p-500-slips-gold-and-silver-soar-to) .
